Over the past couple of months, I attended a few Track and Field functions, and followed media releases pertaining to our current World ranking in Track and Field . The message has been consistent, we currently hold the number 3 ranking in the world, and we are going after the big nations such as the USA. I believe the message is fundamentally flawed and is a total distortion of the real facts.
By doing the most elementary analysis of the IAAF world ranking for Senior men, one will realise that our medals at the previous World Champs came from three super stars (Wayde, Luvo, and Ruswahi and this together with another super star Caster in the ladies division earned us a third position.
Now with Wayde recovering from a long term injury, two of those medals can disappear, dropping us down the medal table, assuming Luvo,Ruswhai, and Caster can retain the same medals at the following championship event. One then has to look where additional medals are going to come from not only to try and retain our current position but also to go after the USA as broadly promoted by the administrators. It is here where things fall apart. According to the current IAAF World rankings our number one ranked athletes across all 18 events currently hold a ranking average of 57 (See Table) . Our second best athletes hold an average ranking of 86, and our third best athletes coming home with a average ranking of 104. This situation is actually even worse as I used 150 as the maximum ranking but in events such as pole vault we don’t have one athlete ranked in the top 150.
Now lets look beyond Wayde Luvo Ruswhai who are the next men to help us surpass the Americans as punted by our officials. Our next best ranked male athletes are ranked 5, 6, 9, 13, 17,19, 25,40,42,43,44. So in order to win additional medals we are looking to convert these numbers I repeat 5, 6, 9, 13, 17,19, 25,40,42,43,44 to top 3 positions to advance on the medal table. Our number one athletes currently hold an average IAAF ranking of 57 across 18 events. In order for us to win more medals we have to get 18 athletes to move away from the average current ranking of 57 to a ranking within the top 3.
But yet the message is consistent, we are in the top 3 in the world and we are going after the big guns.
In my opinion largely based on elementary statistics that is complete bollocks.
Aware of the fact that Nations are limited to two athletes, so rankings can only be a indication but I am sure you will get the point.
By doing the most elementary analysis of the IAAF world ranking for Senior men, one will realise that our medals at the previous World Champs came from three super stars (Wayde, Luvo, and Ruswahi and this together with another super star Caster in the ladies division earned us a third position.
Now with Wayde recovering from a long term injury, two of those medals can disappear, dropping us down the medal table, assuming Luvo,Ruswhai, and Caster can retain the same medals at the following championship event. One then has to look where additional medals are going to come from not only to try and retain our current position but also to go after the USA as broadly promoted by the administrators. It is here where things fall apart. According to the current IAAF World rankings our number one ranked athletes across all 18 events currently hold a ranking average of 57 (See Table) . Our second best athletes hold an average ranking of 86, and our third best athletes coming home with a average ranking of 104. This situation is actually even worse as I used 150 as the maximum ranking but in events such as pole vault we don’t have one athlete ranked in the top 150.
Now lets look beyond Wayde Luvo Ruswhai who are the next men to help us surpass the Americans as punted by our officials. Our next best ranked male athletes are ranked 5, 6, 9, 13, 17,19, 25,40,42,43,44. So in order to win additional medals we are looking to convert these numbers I repeat 5, 6, 9, 13, 17,19, 25,40,42,43,44 to top 3 positions to advance on the medal table. Our number one athletes currently hold an average IAAF ranking of 57 across 18 events. In order for us to win more medals we have to get 18 athletes to move away from the average current ranking of 57 to a ranking within the top 3.
But yet the message is consistent, we are in the top 3 in the world and we are going after the big guns.
In my opinion largely based on elementary statistics that is complete bollocks.
Aware of the fact that Nations are limited to two athletes, so rankings can only be a indication but I am sure you will get the point.
Is this not where we should be focussing
Now lets look at a few examples from the USA. Only 100m to 800m, and its is clear they have such a deep base of athletes that anyone can step up and become the next medal prospect.
RSS Feed
